June 16, 2025
Tracking the occurrence of natural disasters can save lives by helping countries prepare for future ones.
In our work on natural disasters, we visualize data from EM-DAT, the most comprehensive international disaster database. Make a chart of the number of recorded disaster events over time — like the one above — and it looks like the number of disasters rose alarmingly from the 1970s to the millennium. This has led to many media outlets and organizations claiming that the number of disasters has quadrupled over the last 50 years.
However, as EM-DAT itself makes clear, most of this is due to improvements in recording. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, which builds this database, was not established until 1973, and didn’t start publishing EM-DAT until 1988.
The number of recorded disasters increased due to more focused efforts to obtain globally comprehensive data and improvements in communication technologies, which allowed more events to be included, even in the planet's most remote areas.
EM-DAT suggests that only data from 2000 onwards is relatively complete and comparable. The number of events before 2000 is likely to be underestimated. Note that this data does not tell us anything about the intensity of disasters.
Read my full article, with my colleague Pablo Rosado, on the limitations of disaster databases →
June 30
In 1990, one in four newborns in Malawi died before their fifth birthday.
At that time, the average number of births per woman was almost seven. This meant that many families experienced the tragedy of losing a child.
But in recent decades, Malawi has made incredible progress. As you can see in the chart, the child mortality rate has dropped to 1 in 25 children — an 84% reduction.
Many factors have contributed to this decline. The expansion of antenatal care and the attendance of skilled health professionals at birth have been crucial in saving newborns in the earliest days of life. Increasing vaccination rates, distributing insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarials, and programs to stop the transmission of HIV have all reduced the risks of dying in infancy.
Read more about the role that vaccines have played in reducing child mortality →
June 27
Italy has become much safer over the last thirty years.
In the early 1990s, there were around 3 homicides per 100,000 people every year. That was one of the highest rates in Europe.
Since then, rates have fallen by more than 80%. As you can see in the chart, they have been around 0.5 per 100,000 in recent years. That now makes Italy safer than many of its European neighbours.
Mafia-related homicides dropped dramatically in the 1990s following intensified efforts from the Italian government. Some of this organized crime may have also shifted from violent acts towards financial and “white collar” crime.
While estimates can vary across data sources, for Italy, they show strong agreement →
June 25
If you live in the same country as your family, you don’t usually have to pay a fee when you send them money. International migrants face a harsher reality: they pay hefty transaction costs when supporting family back home. Globally, the average fee in 2023 was 6.3%, more than double the UN Sustainable Development Goal's target of getting this down to 3%.
This may not sound like much, but migrants send large amounts home to help with schooling, medical bills, house maintenance, and food. The total sum was nearly three times larger than global foreign aid in 2023. (Here, foreign aid consists of net development assistance from national governments and private philanthropy that meets the necessary conditions.) Although 6.3% might seem modest, when applied to large volumes of money, these transfer fees amount to tens of billions of dollars.
The chart shows that migrants lost $51 billion in transaction fees in 2023, which is not far from the $66 billion the US gave as foreign aid. That's $51 billion paid by migrants but never received by their families.
With the new US administration projected to cut aid by more than half, aid experts from the Center for Global Development suggest reducing fees could help fill some of the gap. They recommend promoting cheaper transfer options, increasing competition between services, and linking banking systems across countries.
While money sent home by migrants isn’t as targeted to vulnerable groups as aid, most of it flows directly to families in low- and middle-income countries who can use it for what they need most.
Read more about money sent home by migrants →
June 23
Foreign aid has saved and improved millions of lives through health programs, food aid, and humanitarian assistance. Several countries — including the United States and the United Kingdom — have announced large cuts to their foreign aid budgets in the last few months. However, one country has been moving in the opposite direction in the last five years.
Since 2018, the amount Japan gives in foreign aid has more than doubled. You can see this in the chart.
In 2018, Japan gave $8.6 billion. By 2023, this had increased to $19.3 billion. This makes Japan’s aid budget equivalent to 0.44% of its gross national income. That was more than the United States, which gave 0.24%, but still less than many European countries, including the UK, France, Germany, and Norway, which topped the list at 1.1%.
Read my recent article on how small amounts of foreign aid can go a long way →
June 20
In the early 1980s, Nepal’s children suffered from some of the highest death rates from pneumonia in the world, with over 1,400 deaths for every 100,000 children under five. That meant around 39,000 children died from pneumonia each year, more than from any other cause.
Since then, Nepal has made huge progress. The death rate has fallen almost 20-fold. This improvement is due to various measures, including pneumococcal and Hib vaccines, better access to healthcare and antibiotics, and improved nutrition.
Despite this progress, pneumonia is still among the leading causes of death in children in Nepal. And we know that more progress can be made: high-income countries have achieved much lower rates, with fewer than 5 per 100,000.
Explore how deaths from pneumonia among children have changed in other countries →
June 18
When we think about money flowing from richer to poorer countries, foreign aid is one of the first things that comes to mind.
However, another major channel receives far less attention in mainstream conversations: the money international migrants send back to their families or bring home after working abroad. Unlike aid, which is publicly funded and often targeted at structural development, these private transfers typically aim at family support to cover critical needs such as food, healthcare, and education.
This chart shows how big that contribution is: in 2023, migrants sent or brought back $822 billion, almost three times the $288 billion provided through global foreign aid. Global foreign aid refers to net development assistance from national governments, with a very small portion coming from private donor philanthropy that meets the criteria for development assistance.
While this gives us a good sense of the size of these different flows, it’s important to note that the distribution of where each goes tends to differ. Most of the money sent home by migrants goes from high-income to middle-income countries, but low-income countries also rely on them relative to their GDP. When it comes to foreign aid, low-income countries receive almost as much money as middle-income countries.
Learn more about money sent or brought home by migrants →
